Largest Natural Disaster in the United States EVER - Happening Now


lds2
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Isn't it interesting to see headlines today...

"The United States Department of Agriculture has declared natural disaster areas in more than 1,000 counties and 26 drought-stricken states, making it the largest natural disaster in America ever." (Yahoo News)

Severe drought conditions plaguing more than half of the United States has developed into the largest natural disaster area in the country’s history. The United States Department of Agriculture declared natural disasters for 26 states and more than 1,000 counties because of the extreme drought that has destroyed crops in farms throughout the nation. (Dailymail.co.uk)

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This means that it is the largest in area...yet it is still devastating for much of the country. Some areas have recently seen rain like Florida (a lot) and the IntermountainWest (mostly light rain/drizzle.)

The Midwest is still very dry...there's no rain pretty much anywhere except a bit to the north right now and hot temperatures are expected to continue and no rain's expected any time soon.

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Darn. It looks like the US annual production of corn will only be 12.97 BILLION BUSHELS instead of 14.79 billion. And our stockpile of surplus corn fell to a meager 1.2 billion bushels.

This might push food prices higher than they were last time they were this high.

LM, won't you think of all those yellow suburban lawns and "stop watering" orders?!?

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Intially this years crop had 77 percent that looked at least good, I started watching a few weeks ago when 63 percent still looked good, the next week it was 53 percent, etc. Right now it is 40 percent and the crops are most damaged by heat during pollination which is happening right now. So the greatest possible damage to the corn crop hasn't begun to be counted yet.

Here is what non-government sources are saying, "A continuation of widespread stressful weather suggests that the average U.S. corn yield could be lower, perhaps much lower, than 146 bushels per acre."

Rationing the 2012 corn crop - Are we there yet? Markets - Cattle & Grain Prices, Quotes, Charts

Here is the drought monitor for the United States. There aren't many areas left that aren't in drought, and a good portion of our "breadbasket" is in severe drought.

US Drought Monitor

As far as the crops are concerned the numbers aren't very accurate until August when they do the field surveys and even then there can be politics involved (as they cut the crop estimates this week they also cut expected usage which doesn't make sense with droughts in the breadbaskets of China, Russia/Ukraine, Korea, etc.), but it is August when a largest decrease in the numbers is expected...

But this drought is being compared to the 1988 drought in heat and duration so far and by the end of the season an acre on average produced 83 bushels of corn that year. Right now the estimate is still forecast at 146 bushels per acre with no rain in sight. Russia and China are also having their harvest estimates reduced and 1 or 2 percent in China is huge when they start turning their eye to importing the difference!

While world stocks don't look that bad on paper you have to look at who controls a lot of the excess and many of those are not US friendly countries and have reserves stored in case of natural disaster (like now) or war and already have huge contracts for this years global harvests in place. Other regularly importing countries have been holding off on their contracts hoping for better global harvests bringing prices down (due to the record crops planted and once bountiful harvest projected) and now have to enter the bidding with record breaking prices due to lower supply and increased demand.

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Remember Texas and surrounding states have been in drought for a very long time now...so compare what was happening then to now...

*** (Wiki)

Another significant drought in the United States occurred during 1988 and 1989. Following a milder drought in the Southeastern United States and California the year before, this drought spread from the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Midwest, Northern Great Plains and Western United States. This drought was widespread, unusually intense and accompanied by heat waves which killed...people across the United States and also killed livestock across the United States...The Drought of 1988 destroyed crops almost nationwide, residents' lawns went brown and water restrictions were declared in many cities.

The Yellowstone National Park fell victim to wildfires that burned many trees and created exceptional destruction in the area. This drought was very catastrophic for multiple reasons; it continued across the Upper Midwest States and North Plains States during 1989, not officially ending until 1990.[28]

...The Drought of 1988 qualifies being the costliest natural disaster in the history of the United States...

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So far the difference is that Canada and the Northern areas have still had the rain needed for crops to grow. Also because of one of the warmest winters ever recorded farmers were able to get a larger number of acres planted. But that drought lasted several years and we haven't seen the end to this one yet. We will see if we see water restrictions across the US by September, it depends on whether normal weather conditions return taking moisture from the Intermountain West, East, which hasn't been happening lately.

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Photo of an Indiana corn crop...

http://indianapublicmedia.org/eartheats/files/2012/07/1194495629_a048d8275d_b-e1342124164437-940x627.jpg

“We had a great start, but last week’s heat really damaged the crops,” said Docherty, who manages 10 grain terminals in an area that covers about 200,000 acres of prime Midwest farmland. “Some farmers are not going to harvest one bushel this year. It’s very disappointing.”

U.S. Corn-Crop Forecast Cut as Drought Dims Supply Outlook - Bloomberg

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With drought affecting more than half the continental United States and less than a quarter of the nation's pasture and range rated good to excellentB]...Where range has not been destroyed, drought has lessened forage...Compounding the strain are springs, streams and reservoirs that in some cases are running low or dry.

Desiree Seal, executive director of the Nevada Cattlemen's Association, said ranchers have not struggled with similar conditions for generations.

The drought in the Midwest follows another one last year in the southern Plains...

Fischer said. "There is no pollen left because the silks were delayed. . . because it has been too hot and dry.

Ravaged by fires, Western ranchers face "scary" summer - Yahoo! News

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While it's certainly no picnic, does this really surpass the Dustbowl drought during the Great Depression???

"This catastrophe intensified the economic impact of the Great Depression in the region. The Dust Bowl has been identified as the "most extreme natural event in 350 years""

Things aren't good, I'll give you that, but United States has been through worse.

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There are some news stories that seem to only serve those that want to worry about things that are outside of their control.

I think this is one of them. I'm not going to worry about it... because I have better things to do.

Yes, be current in current events, but let's not forget to LIVE our lives with joy and happiness... not in worrying about worldwide calamities.

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While it's certainly no picnic, does this really surpass the Dustbowl drought during the Great Depression???

"This catastrophe intensified the economic impact of the Great Depression in the region. The Dust Bowl has been identified as the "most extreme natural event in 350 years""

Things aren't good, I'll give you that, but United States has been through worse.

That's how I read it at first also but when I read closer, I think they were saying largest geographical area. When you look at the drought map it is pretty amazing just how little of the country is not in a dry - drought area.

Yesterday as I posted I was listening to rain outside my window and it was hard to believe that other states are really that dry...our area was too but then we had the prayers for the fires and it's been scattered showers every few days since. The funny thing about this rain is that it's been going up North instead of directly East.

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There are some news stories that seem to only serve those that want to worry about things that are outside of their control.

I think this is one of them. I'm not going to worry about it... because I have better things to do.

Yes, be current in current events, but let's not forget to LIVE our lives with joy and happiness... not in worrying about worldwide calamities.

Exactly right! for “if ye are prepared ye shall not fear.” D&C 38:30

When we have obeyed Heavenly Father's loving commandment to "prepare every needful thing" it's all good. Famines can come and go and you have no need to worry because of the promised blessings for faithfulness and obedience!

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Our Heavenly Father created this beautiful earth, with all its abundance, for our benefit and use. His purpose is to provide for our needs as we walk in faith and obedience. He has lovingly commanded us to ‘prepare every needful thing’ (see D&C 109:8) so that, should adversity come, we may care for ourselves and our neighbors and support bishops as they care for others.

“We encourage members worldwide to prepare for adversity in life by having a basic supply of food and water and some money in savings.

From the Message to the Church from the First Presidency

https://www.lds.org/family/family-well-being/home-storage?lang=eng

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"We call upon priesthood bearers to store sufficient so that you and your family can weather the vicissitudes of life."

The feeling of peace and the desire to be faithful to the commandment given by the Lord through the modern prophet helps us feel the Holy Spirit, … to not be afraid, and to see that the signs of the time for the Second Coming of the Lord is a blessing and not something to fear. We rejoice in it. … It gives us the motivation to be faithful and endure to the end and to be saved and obtain eternal life.”

Bishop McMullin "Lay Up In Store"

https://www.lds.org/liahona/2007/05/lay-up-in-store?lang=eng

vicissitudes

plural noun variations, changes, shifts, changes of fortune, life's ups and downs

.

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I'm praying for the farmers and everyone else just in case this drought continues on a year or two. It isn't just our country having issues this year, other's of the major food producing nations are being affected as well.

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“Producers are concerned about corn pollination as the crop begins to tassel under very dry conditions,” said the report.

Russia -

"Meanwhile, the latest production estimates for Russia, a major exporter, are down 3 million metric tons “due to a continuation of spring dryness in key winter wheat producing areas and indications of crop development problems resulting from winter freeze damage.” Dry weather hit southern Russia in April and May, damaging winter wheat crops. Rains later eased the region’s drought, but they came too late to improve crop conditions."

“Late-May precipitation enabled overall vegetative conditions to improve in Krasnodar, and to a lesser degree in Rostov, but the actual benefit to winter-wheat yield at this late stage in crop development was likely minimal,” states a report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. “Crop development was accelerated this year due to the hot, dry weather, and, in many areas, the severe weather had already done irreparable damage to the wheat crop.”

China -

While the droughts in Europe and the United States are impacting commodity markets, droughts in Asia are creating localized food shortages...A drought in China has also impeded crop production...

Droughts Hit World’s Agricultural Regions: Without Water, U.S. Corn Crop Faces Setbacks | Circle of Blue WaterNews

United States -

1,000 counties covering 26 states! that means almost one-third of all the counties in the United States, making it the largest disaster declaration ever made by the United States Department of Agriculture

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America’s worst drought since ’56 threatens world food supply...

The USDA on Monday rated the corn crop – which had once been estimated to total a record 14 billion bushels this year – at only 31% good-to-excellent, down 9 percentage points on last week...

Crop watchers were alarmed that corn rated poor-to-very poor jumped to 38%, versus 30% last week and 11% a year ago.

With little rain in sight a Purdue expert said...

We’re moving from a crisis to a horror story,” said Purdue University agronomist Tony Vyn. “I see an increasing number of fields that will produce zero grain.”

Worst U.S. drought since '56 threatens world food supply | Economy | News | Financial Post

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Recap...

Intially this years crop had 77 percent that looked at least good,

I started watching a few weeks ago when 63 percent still looked good,

the next week it was 53 percent, etc.

Last week it is 40 percent and the crops are most damaged by heat during pollination which is happening right now.

31% this week

And the greatest possible damage to the corn crop hasn't fully been counted yet.

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I saw a photo of an ear of corn with just a few kernels on the whole thing. It was very sad. It reminded me of this quote...

"...lay up stores of grain, against the time of need, for you will see the time when there will not be a kernel raised, and when thousands and millions will come to this people for bread."--Heber C. Kimball (Journal of Discourses 5:163-64)

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Grains purchases are traditionally made months in advance, with traders using their market knowledge to calculate whether supplies will be plentiful or tight at the future time when the grain has to be bought and ships loaded...

Until about four weeks ago, traders were expecting falling prices with a record U.S. corn crop on the horizon, providing the import supply chain with low cost grain many sellers had not bought yet.

World grain price surge triggering contract defaults - The Globe and Mail

"corn alone surging by 51 per cent in the past month. Soybeans have also hit record highs up 20 percent, with wheat is now up 40 percent."

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Corn prices are up 54% since June and it is trading at an all-time high of $8 a bushel...

"...the past month temperatures across eastern Italy and the Black Sea region into Ukraine have consistently hit 35 deg C (95 deg F) or more. That’s five degrees higher than normal and a temperature that hinders corn production, said Cedric Weber, head of market analysis at farmers’ advisory firm Offre et Demande Agricole.

...India, meanwhile, has put off corn sowing because of a late monsoon season while Australian crops are also facing below-average rainfall.

“...in Europe we’ll need to import a lot of wheat and corn,” Weber told Bloomberg. “That’s just adding to the problems we’ve got everywhere.”"

Food prices set to rise as corn feels the heat - Business News - Business - Evening Standard

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Drought and scorching temperatures in Eastern Europe from Poland to Romania also have burned up crops, causing alarm about stockpiles and soaring prices. Russian wheat harvests will also be cut by drought and Indian harvests will be cut by the poorest monsoon rains in four decades, officials said on Thursday. (Reuters)

This is the first post I've heard about Poland and Romania and it sounds like India has greatly worsened.

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